Will Jerome Powell say “Trade War”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Trade War” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

25%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=trade%20war

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jerome Powell

Trade War

Probability
25% · n=2
Settled
0/2 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 43:44In transcript

…knew it from the very beginning—it was not in the model. A trade war of this scope—we’d never had that in 100 years. And so…

MATT EGANreporterFOMC press conference, December 10, 2025 · Dec 10, 2025In transcript

…the helm of the Fed. Since becoming Fed Chair, you’ve seen multiple trade wars, the pandemic, COVID reopening, a period of high inflation. I know…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 23, 2025Trade WarKalshiNo
Apr 4, 2025Trade warKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Trade War”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Trade War” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Trade War” next time?
25%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Trade War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/trade-war (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=trade%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP