Will Jerome Powell say “Careful”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Careful” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 2, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Careful
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
The people we serve benefit from your careful reporting. I welcomed the announcement last Friday by the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia that…
They’re going to make a reasoned, careful judgment that we’re going to have higher oil prices for an extended period of time—meaningfully higher. So you…
…as I’m talking about it, that we’re going to need to be careful in assessing particularly the household survey data. There are very technical reasons…
…support hiring over time. And, of course, we also have to be careful about this, which is what we’ve been doing because we know where…
…the labor market is really strong, that’s when you’ve got to be careful about inflation. So we have a situation where we have two-sided risk,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | Careful |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Careful”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Careful” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 2, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Careful” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Careful’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/careful (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=careful · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP