Will Jerome Powell say “Tax”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Tax” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

21%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=tax

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jerome Powell

Tax

Probability
21% · n=2
Settled
0/2 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

ARCHIE HALLreporterFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 28:40In transcript

…growth outlook you’re now seeing, how much of that is the fiscal stimulus we’re seeing from the Beautiful Bill, the tax cuts, and all that?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, December 10, 2025 · Dec 10, 2025In transcript

…reserves are at a low level temporarily. So that’s what happens on Tax Day. People pay a lot of money to the government, reserves drop…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, July 30, 2025 · Jul 30, 2025 · 1:15:48In transcript

…part of the bill was, was making permanent existing law on, on taxes, I don’t think we see it as particularly stimulative. There should be…

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 15, 2025TaxKalshiNo
Sep 23, 2025TaxKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Tax”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Tax” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Tax” next time?
21%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Tax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/tax (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=tax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP