Jerome Powell: Speech, Oct 14, 2025
Polymarket What will Powell say during his speech on October 14?
Markets
19 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | Yes | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Employment / Unemployment 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Payroll | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pardon Me / Sorry | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beige Book | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Money | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Consumer Spending | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 35+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Labor Market 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession / Depression | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 6+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Afternoon | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Rate Cut | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 13%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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