Jerome Powell: Panel, Dec 2, 2025
Kalshi What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions?
Markets
24 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Volcker | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Administration | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Layoff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Careful | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Productivity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Race / Racism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Theranos | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World War | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cut | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mortgage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trillion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Soft Landing | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Good Afternoon | No | 23%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 18%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 16%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOWELLMENTION-25DEC02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP