Will Jerome Powell say “Oil”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Oil” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.

42%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

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Jerome Powell

Oil

Probability
42% · n=2
Settled
1/2 (50%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, April 29, 2026 · Apr 29, 2026In transcript

…12 months ending in March, boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, March 18, 2026 · Mar 18, 2026In transcript

…expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Most measures…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, January 28, 2026 · Jan 28, 2026 · 36:42In transcript

…that. Geopolitical risk for us is—a lot of it is around energy, oil. And so far we haven’t— for all the turmoil, we really—oil prices…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, June 18, 2025 · Jun 18, 2025 · 43:46In transcript

…seen anything like that—that—like that now. The U.S. economy is far less dependent on foreign oil than it was back in the 1970s. So, but—

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Mar 30, 2026OilKalshiYes
Mar 19, 2026OilKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Oil”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Oil” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Oil” next time?
42%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Oil’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/oil (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP