Will Jerome Powell say “Dollar”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Dollar” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 16, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Dollar
- Probability
- 38% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to this issue of the easing bias: We’ve now got oil approaching $120 a barrel when it comes to the benchmark Brent crude. If it…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…time. So they’re, they’re not sitting there waiting for oil to go over $70 a barrel and then they’re going to start drilling or whatever.
So, Claire, as you probably know, we don’t comment on the dollar. Really, the Administration, and especially the Treasury Department, has the job of oversight…
…Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reserve management purchases will amount to $40 billion in the first month and may remain elevated for a few…
…have been shrinking our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by $2.2 trillion. As a share of nominal GDP, our balance sheet has fallen…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Dollar”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Dollar” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 16, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Dollar” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Dollar’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/dollar (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=dollar · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP