Jerome Powell: Remarks, Mar 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University?
Markets
21 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | Yes | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shock | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Productivity | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cut | Yes | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 19%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Layoff | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crimson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kevin / Warsh | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alumni | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Good Morning | No | 17%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | 11%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 8%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOWELLMENTION-26MAR30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP