Will Jerome Powell say “Unemployment”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Unemployment” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 15, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Unemployment
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up…
…expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat…
…2026 on a firm footing. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.…
…the labor market for September, the most recent release, showed that the unemployment rate continued to edge up, reaching 4.4 percent, and that job gains…
…activity while it persists, but these effects should reverse after the shutdown ends. In the labor market, the unemployment rate remained relatively low through August.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2025 | Unemployment |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Unemployment”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Unemployment” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Unemployment” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Unemployment’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/unemployment (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=unemployment · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP