Will Jerome Powell say “GDP / Gross Domestic Product”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Jerome Powell said “GDP / Gross Domestic Product” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
GDP / Gross Domestic Product
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…spend less on other things. So there will be a hit to GDP. So it’s a, you know, it’s a question whether spending, you know,…
…In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, somewhat…
…matter over time. The numbers you cite were for quarters, and quarterly GDP is—you need to look at 12 months, because quarterly GDP can be…
…In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, somewhat…
…indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. GDP rose at a 1.6 percent pace in the first half of the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2025 | GDP / Gross Domestic Product |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 4, 2025 | GDP / Gross Domestic Product | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “GDP / Gross Domestic Product”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Jerome Powell said “GDP / Gross Domestic Product” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “GDP / Gross Domestic Product” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘GDP / Gross Domestic Product’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/gdp-or-gross-domestic-product (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=gdp%20%2F%20gross%20domestic%20product · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP