Jerome Powell: Speech, Aug 24, 2025
Kalshi What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium?
Markets
36 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Chair | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pandemic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Balance of risks | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dual | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Layoff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Meeting | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulator/ regulatory / regulation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Symposium | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dollar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Good afternoon | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Administration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anchor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Christopher / Waller | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Consumer confidence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Credit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dissent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Labor 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Labor 40+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Michelle / Bowman | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Overheat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Projection | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renovation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soft landing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good morning | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dot plot | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Median | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transitory | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOWELLMENTION-25AUG24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP