Will Jerome Powell say “Surcharge”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Surcharge” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 19, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Surcharge
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…moves forward with a revised Basel proposal, potentially changes to the G-SIB surcharge, has that changed at all? Or are you planning to significantly reduce…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Surcharge |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Surcharge”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Surcharge” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Surcharge” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Surcharge’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/surcharge (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=surcharge · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP