Will Jerome Powell say “Rate Cut”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Rate Cut” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Rate Cut
- Probability
- 20% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is still one in which the Committee just extends the pause in rate cuts? And to what extent is there a growing sense within the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…the rate forecast is conditional on the performance of the economy. So if we don’t see that progress, then you won’t see the rate cut.
…say about this was that after this meeting, after the three recent rate cuts, we’re well positioned to address the risks that we face on…
…you, Mr. Chairman, for taking our questions here. You had previously described rate cuts in terms of a risk-management framework. And, kind of following up…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…has declined significantly since April. And if we do wind up resuming rate cuts at some point—we will at some point—I think we’re trying to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Rate Cut”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Rate Cut” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Rate Cut” next time?
- 20%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Rate Cut’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/rate-cut (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=rate%20cut · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP