Will Jerome Powell say “Tariff Inflation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Tariff Inflation” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Tariff Inflation
- Probability
- 21% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…middle of the year progress on tariffs going through once and then tariff inflation coming down. That’s— we should be seeing that. And the rate…
…clearly, precisely when this will happen. But there’s an expectation that sometime in the middle quarters of the year, we’ll see tariff inflation topping out.
So with tariff inflation, you know, it takes—there’s the announcement of a tariff and then there’s—you know, they start to take effect. And then it…
…from your goal. So that—we look at that, and the thing about tariff inflation is the base case is that it will come, and it…
…rates is, is to understand what will happen with, with, really, the tariff inflation. And there’s a lot of uncertainty about that. Every forecaster you…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Tariff Inflation |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Tariff Inflation | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Tariff Inflation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Tariff Inflation” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Tariff Inflation” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Tariff Inflation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/tariff-inflation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=tariff%20inflation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP