Will Jerome Powell say “Market”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Market” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Market
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in March and has changed little…
…percent next year, somewhat stronger than projected in December. In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in February and has changed little…
…remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. Having lowered our policy…
…not changed much since our meeting in October. Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In support…
…not changed much since our meeting in September. Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In support…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | Market |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Market”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Market” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Market” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP