Jerome Powell: Remarks, Oct 25, 2025
Kalshi What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting?
Markets
23 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Register | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transparency | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pandemic | No | 66%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Basel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Capital Requirement | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Debit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Leverage Ratio | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mortgage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Risk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robust | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Administration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Good Afternoon | No | 25%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Dot Plot | No | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 18%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOWELLMENTION-25OCT25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP