Will Donald Trump say “Fraud / Scam”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fraud / Scam” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 11, 2026 (75%), most recently on May 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fraud / Scam
- Probability
- 48% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…seat. Elhan Nure say Elme, her real name, has openly admitted to fraud and she will not be legally allowed to be a member of…
…So Elon Nur say Elmei her real name is openly admitted to fraud and she will not be legally allowed to be a member of…
…that Elhan Nur say Elmei, her real name is openly admitted to fraud and she will not be legally allowed to be a member of…
…everybody for being here. The effort to stop cyber crime and cyber fraud has been ongoing for many years, but I think we're closer to…
…also declared a national emergency on energy and terminated the Green New Scam. One of the greatest hoaxes in the history of our country. And…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Fraud / Scam |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 22, 2026 | Scam / Fraud | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 10, 2026 | Scam / Fraud | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Fraud / Scam | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fraud / Scam”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fraud / Scam” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 11, 2026 (75%), most recently on May 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fraud / Scam” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fraud / Scam’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fraud-or-scam (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fraud%20%2F%20scam · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP