Will Donald Trump say “Death Tax”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Death Tax” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 11, 2024 (50%), most recently on Jun 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Death Tax
- Probability
- 48% · n=6
- Settled
- 3/6 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I'm most happy about. We eliminated the unfair estate tax or the death tax, right? It's the best thing. And I tell, you know, I…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Death Tax |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Death Tax | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| May 22, 2026 | Death Tax |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Death Tax | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Death tax | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Death Tax | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Death Tax”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Death Tax” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 11, 2024 (50%), most recently on Jun 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Death Tax” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Death Tax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/death-tax (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=death%20tax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP