Will Donald Trump say “Peanut”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Peanut” at 3 of 23 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 18, 2025 (13%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=23, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Peanut
- Probability
- 29% · n=23
- Settled
- 3/23 (13%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…came into office, we've already uncovered $260 billion of fraud and that's peanuts compared to what the real number is. And by the -- and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 23 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Peanut |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 22, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 7, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Peanut | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Peanut”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Peanut” at 3 of 23 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 18, 2025 (13%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Peanut” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=23). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Peanut’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/peanut (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=peanut · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP