Will Donald Trump say “Stupid”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid” at 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jul 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Stupid
- Probability
- 51% · n=15
- Settled
- 6/15 (40%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…America. Take the take them off and watch everybody say bye-bye you stupid people. But uh but the fake news was just killing me because…
…idea." And then you know what they told me? It's not constitutional. In other words, a person who's stupid is allowed to run for office.
…do something horrendous. So, let's say we did what a lot of stupid people wanted me to do, a lot of really stupid people. I…
…decimate South Carolina industries that are thriving, mutilate your children with this stupid transgender stuff, and give 25 million illegal aliens amnesty and the right…
…of all kinds, and it's time. I gave them Javelins. When the stupid general for Russia, very stupid gentleman, they had 1,000 tanks riding up…
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Stupid |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| May 22, 2026 | Stupid | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Stupid | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Stupid | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 16, 2025 | Stupid | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Stupid | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Stupid | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Stupid”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid” at 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jul 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Stupid” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Stupid’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/stupid (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=stupid · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP