Will Donald Trump say “Ballroom / Pool”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ballroom / Pool” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2026 (60%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Ballroom / Pool
- Probability
- 48% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a clean city. Can we admit that? Thank God you're building the ballroom. Thank God you're getting rid of those awful bike lanes. By the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Ballroom update. Can you give us a ballroom update? Everything is going up really fast.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 22, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Ballroom / Pool”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Ballroom / Pool” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2026 (60%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Ballroom / Pool” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Ballroom / Pool’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ballroom-or-pool (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ballroom%20%2F%20pool · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP