Will Donald Trump say “Iran / Iranian” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran / Iranian” 3+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Iran / Iranian (3+ times)
- Probability
- 58% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…doing very well. You have no idea how well we're doing with Iran. Iran is finished. Iran is finished. But think of it. But I…
…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…
…been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not gotten involved with Iran. We've -- we've taken Iran down to levels that they've never seen…
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
…countries in Europe and, as you know, we're doing very well with Iran. We just have to make a final decision of which way do…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| May 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Iran / Iranian (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iran / Iranian” 3+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iran / Iranian (3+ times)” next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iran / Iranian (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran-or-iranian-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP