Will Donald Trump say “November 5”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “November 5” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

40%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

November 5

Probability
40% · n=14
Settled
6/14 (43%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 22, 2026November 5KalshiNo
May 4, 2026November 5KalshiYes
May 1, 2026November 5KalshiNo
Apr 1, 2026November 5KalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026November 5KalshiNo
Mar 11, 2026November 5KalshiNo
Feb 28, 2026November 5KalshiYes
Feb 20, 2026November 5KalshiYes
Jan 28, 2026November 5KalshiNo
Jan 28, 2026November 5KalshiYes
Dec 20, 2025November 5KalshiNo
Dec 10, 2025November 5KalshiYes
Dec 5, 2025November 5KalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025November 5KalshiYes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “November 5”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “November 5” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 4, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “November 5” next time?
40%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘November 5’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/november-5 (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=november%205 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP