Will Donald Trump say “Social Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Social Security” at 8 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2024 (89%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 8/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Social Security
- Probability
- 57% · n=9
- Settled
- 8/9 (89%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on social security for our great seniors. And we made interest on car loans…
…no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on social security. You don't have any seniors in this room for a great…
…bill, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security for our great seniors. And we we did something that I…
…100, many, many over 100. We kicked 275,000 illegal aliens off of Social Security. And Frank has been amazing in Social Security, JD, I think.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Social Security |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Social Security |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| May 22, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2026 | Social Security | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Social Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Social Security | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Social Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Social Security” at 8 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2024 (89%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Social Security” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Social Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/social-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=social%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP