Will Donald Trump say “Border” 5+ times?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 5+ times at 11 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (58%), most recently on Jun 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Border 5+ times
- Probability
- 40% · n=19
- Settled
- 11/19 (58%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…He wants to take away your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for everybody. It's a guy who's gone.…
…in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like…
…mean, at the War Department, we've done the same on the southwest border with our interagency partners on law enforcement in cities all across America…
…it's a big reason. Take away your second amendment. Wants to open your borders. Wants to do so many things that you're just not going
…just such a big part of the country is corrupt. We need borders, we need good elections, we need great journalists and we have to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 19 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Border 5+ times |  Polymarket | No | 3 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Border 5+ | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Border 5+ times |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Border 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Border 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 5+ times at 11 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (58%), most recently on Jun 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Border 5+ times” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Border 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/border-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=border%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP