Will Donald Trump say “250”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “250” at 28 of 55 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (51%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=55, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

48%from settlement history only · n=55counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no yes no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=250

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

250

Probability
48% · n=55
Settled
28/55 (51%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 53:04In transcript

…money and I'm going to put massive tariffs on both of you. 250% so you won't be able to do any business. And they got…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 3:45In transcript

…It's unbelievable. Unbelievable. They'll do whatever they can to win. They get $250 for that and they screw up their lives and they go home…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 0:53In transcript

…my great honor to welcome the world to America as we celebrate 250 years of glorious freedom and independence. Two and a half centuries after…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 58 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 29, 2026250PolymarketYes–
Aug 24, 2026250KalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026250KalshiNo0
Aug 4, 2026250KalshiNo–
Jul 24, 2026250KalshiYes2
Jul 23, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jul 22, 2026250KalshiNo3 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Jul 9, 2026250KalshiYes–
Jul 2, 2026250KalshiNo–
Jun 29, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 26, 2026250KalshiYes5
Jun 25, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 25, 2026250KalshiYes1
Jun 24, 2026250KalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 23, 2026250KalshiYes1
Jun 22, 2026250KalshiYes3
Jun 20, 2026250KalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026250KalshiYes1
Jun 17, 2026250KalshiYes2
Jun 17, 2026250KalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 17, 2026250KalshiNo1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Jun 17, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026250KalshiYes1
Jun 16, 2026250KalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 16, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 15, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 13, 2026250KalshiNo–
Jun 11, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 11, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 10, 2026250KalshiYes2
Jun 8, 2026250KalshiNo0
Jun 7, 2026250KalshiNo–
May 30, 2026250KalshiYes–
May 27, 2026250KalshiYes–
May 22, 2026250KalshiNo–
May 20, 2026250KalshiNo–
May 19, 2026250KalshiYes–
May 11, 2026250KalshiNo–
May 5, 2026250KalshiYes–
May 1, 2026250KalshiYes–
Apr 29, 2026250KalshiNo–
Apr 28, 2026250KalshiYes–
Apr 28, 2026250KalshiYes–
Apr 26, 2026250KalshiNo–
Apr 1, 2026250KalshiYes–
Mar 27, 2026250KalshiYes–
Mar 26, 2026250KalshiYes–
Mar 6, 2026250KalshiYes–
Feb 24, 2026250KalshiYes–
Feb 13, 2026250PolymarketNo–
Dec 7, 2025250KalshiNo–
Dec 6, 2025250KalshiNo–
Nov 18, 2025250KalshiYes–
Nov 12, 2025250KalshiYes–
Nov 7, 2025250KalshiYes–
Nov 6, 2025250KalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025250KalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2025250KalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “250”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “250” at 28 of 55 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (51%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “250” next time?
48%, from settlement history (n=55). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘250’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/250 (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=250 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP