Will Donald Trump say “Warsh”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Warsh” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (36%), most recently on May 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Warsh
- Probability
- 34% · n=11
- Settled
- 4/11 (36%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Warsh |  Kalshi | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 24, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 22, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 17, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Warsh |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Warsh | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Warsh”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Warsh” at 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (36%), most recently on May 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Warsh” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Warsh’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/warsh (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=warsh · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP