Will Donald Trump say “Favored Nation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Favored Nation” at 8 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 19, 2025 (62%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Favored Nation
- Probability
- 53% · n=13
- Settled
- 8/13 (62%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…vote for That's happened to me before. I could I got most favored nation agreements to reduce the cost of prescription drugs from the highest…
…when you hear that, you feel a lot better. I got most favored nation agreements to reduce the cost of many prescription drugs from the…
…went up. They didn't know what they were doing. I got most favored nation agreements to reduce the cost of many prescription drugs from the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Favored Nation |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Favored Nation | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Favored Nation | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 22, 2026 | Favored Nation |  Polymarket | Yes |
| May 18, 2026 | Favored Nation | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Favored Nation | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Favored Nation | Polymarket | No |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Favored Nation | Polymarket | No |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Favored Nation | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Favored Nation | Polymarket | No |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Favored Nation | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Favored Nation | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Favored Nations | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Favored Nation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Favored Nation” at 8 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 19, 2025 (62%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Favored Nation” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Favored Nation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/favored-nation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=favored%20nation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP