Will Donald Trump say “250 / 250th”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “250 / 250th” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (62%), most recently on May 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
250 / 250th
- Probability
- 43% · n=8
- Settled
- 5/8 (62%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…money and I'm going to put massive tariffs on both of you. 250% so you won't be able to do any business. And they got…
…It's unbelievable. Unbelievable. They'll do whatever they can to win. They get $250 for that and they screw up their lives and they go home…
…my great honor to welcome the world to America as we celebrate 250 years of glorious freedom and independence. Two and a half centuries after…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 250 / 250th |  Polymarket | No |
| May 19, 2026 | 250 / 250th | Polymarket | Yes |
| May 11, 2026 | 250 / 250th | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 250 / 250th | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 250 / 250th | Polymarket | No |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 250 / 250th | Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 250 / 250th | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2025 | 250 / 250th |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “250 / 250th”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “250 / 250th” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 23, 2025 (62%), most recently on May 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “250 / 250th” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘250 / 250th’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/250-or-250th (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=250%20%2F%20250th · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP