Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 21, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during the Diwali Celebration?
Markets
9 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 66%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 56%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 50%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| India 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Modi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion / Million / Billion 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hindu / Hinduism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kash / Patel | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 33%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-diwali-celebration · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP