Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 21, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during bilateral meeting with Prime Minister of Australia?
Markets
24 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 84%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 77%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 70%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 61%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 58%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 53%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Submarine | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 49%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 45%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 67%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 66%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | 63%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 48%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 47%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kangaroo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Schumer | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Aluminum | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 24%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP