Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 24, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Announcement?
Markets
22 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 82%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 81%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 76%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 61%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 60%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 46%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 10%n=145 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 68%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Tomahawk | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 60%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 57%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 49%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 49%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Stablecoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | 40%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 29%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 15%n=21 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP