Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 9, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Roundtable on ANTIFA?
Polymarket What will Trump say during President of Finland events on October 9?
Markets
39 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 81%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 64%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 63%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 62%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 59%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Thank you 8+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | Yes | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Russia 7+ times | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 44%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 42%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 40%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Yes | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | Yes | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 58%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | 51%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| AOC | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| RICO | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Political Violence | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Finland / Canada 15+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Negotiate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Forest | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jared / Kushner | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake news | No | 39%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Soros | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | No | 36%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Golf | No | 28%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 23%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 22%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=132 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP