Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 19, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the National Defense Authorization Act signing?
Polymarket What will Trump say during the announcement on December 19?
Markets
40 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden/Obama | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA/Make America Great Again | Yes | 50%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 46%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nations | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pharmaceutical/Pharmaceuticals | Yes | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Drug 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thank you / Please 18+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro/Venezuela | Yes | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 74%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 66%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 66%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | No | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 61%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 60%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 57%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | No | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 55%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 54%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 53%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 50%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Terrible/Horrible | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tomahawk | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Strength / Strong | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Merry Christmas | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| DEI | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 36%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Ozempic / Fat shot | No | 35%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 34%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 34%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Department of War | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok/Tik Tok | No | 26%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 22%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 21%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | 19%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 19%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 5%n=210 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP