Donald Trump: Interview, Apr 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Fox News interview?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Fox Business interview on April 15?
Markets
43 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=228 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 64%n=120 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 61%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 60%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 58%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 55%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 55%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 48%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 48%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Dow / S&P | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | Yes | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 44%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Patriot | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Greatest Military | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Late / Fed | Yes | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tax / Tariff 5+ times | Yes | 36%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 57%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 55%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | 54%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 51%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=199 from settlement history | – |
| Boat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| King | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 40%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bottom of the Sea | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Underwater | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gay | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Paper tiger | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 35%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 35%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Leo / Pope | No | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | No | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 29%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 27%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 25%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 22%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=338 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-fox-business-interview-on-april-15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP