Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during America’s Navy 250?
Markets
25 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 67%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 58%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 58%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 53%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Submarine / Sub | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cartel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Medal of Honor | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fleet | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midway | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World War | Yes | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 86%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| George Washington | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ship Building / Shipbuilding | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia | No | 44%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 43%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Hamas | No | 43%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Pearl Harbor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Schumer | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terror | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP