Donald Trump: Appearance, Apr 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say with the Artemis II Astronauts?
Polymarket What will Trump say during astronaut meeting?
Markets
40 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genius | Yes | 62%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 58%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 58%n=236 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 52%n=147 from settlement history | – |
| Jared / Isaacman | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Rocket | Yes | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 49%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Oval Office | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| NASA | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 47%n=211 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | Yes | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Proud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Any Question | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 35%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 33%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 31%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 58%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 54%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Apollo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mars | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 45%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Houston | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ISS / International Space Station | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon Base | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Baby | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / China 4+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SpaceX | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bezos | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lunar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NASA 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Record | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zero | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR29C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP