Donald Trump: Posts, week ending Oct 4, 2026
In the week ending Oct 4, 2026, Donald Trump posted 3 of the 12 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 11 of 12 settlements.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 12- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deranged / Derangement | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=183 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 3 | 3 | ✗ | 40%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 74%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 69%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Vance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Scam | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fool | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 9%n=56 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownTruth Social posts by @realDonaldTrump, via CNN's public archive · The posts
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-04:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-04:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP