Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 30, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his announcement?
Markets
26 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 85%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | Yes | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 65%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Europe / European | No | 63%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 62%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 58%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| October 7th | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | No | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 49%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 48%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 48%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Terror | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Comey | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 35%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 34%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Houthi | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine | No | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 26%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 17%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP