Donald Trump: Press conference, Jan 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the news conference at Mar-a-Lago?
Polymarket What will Trump say during his Venezuela press conference today?
Markets
42 words · 27 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=141 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 60%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 59%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 55%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 51%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 49%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 42%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Cilia / Flores | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dictator 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell | Yes | 41%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Florida / Mar-a-Lago | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| War | Yes | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | Yes | 37%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Wife | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Boat | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Helicopter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congress | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pete / Hegseth | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dictator | Yes | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 30%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| CIA / FBI | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cocaine 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| F-35 / Drone / Helicopter 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | 40%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maria / Corina / Machado | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace Through Strength | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Arrest / Arrested | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Delta | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invade / Invasion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 33%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Machado | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nobel | No | 17%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=220 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP