Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Bill Signing Ceremony?
Markets
23 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 75%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 65%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / Olympics | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 47%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border Patrol | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 39%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Disaster | Yes | 35%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 67%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 62%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 58%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 53%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 52%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup / Fifa | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 45%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Veteran | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 39%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | 23%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=204 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP