Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?
Polymarket What will Trump say during WHCA Dinner on April 25?
Markets
70 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soleimani | No | 56%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Space / Moon | No | 53%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 52%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 7+ times | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer | No | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Wall Street | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel / Peace Prize | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Waste / Fraud 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Too Late / Powell | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| First Lady / Movie Star | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 40%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America / Gulf of Trump | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Apprentice | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beautiful / Wonderful 12+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| First Amendment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm / Election 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Psychological / Psychologist / Psychology | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe City / Safest City | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stair | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weightlifter / Weightlifting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 38%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 36%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Pope / Christian | No | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom / Arc / Arch | No | 31%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | No | 29%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | No | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Podcast / TikTok | No | 28%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 24%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Allah | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Ballroom | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Pending resolution | – | – |
| China | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Comedy / Comedian | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Epic Fury | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Ethereum | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Genius | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Gulf of America | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Highest Inflation | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Hoax | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Hormuz | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Hottest | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Iran | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Journey / Excursion | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Kamala | Pending resolution | – | – |
| King | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Movie Star | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Newsom / Newscum | Pending resolution | – | – |
| November 5 | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Oil | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Peace | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Radical Left | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Save America Act | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Stock Market | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Supreme Leader | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Tariff | Pending resolution | – | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Transgender | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Truth | Pending resolution | – | – |
| Weave / Weaved / Weaving | Pending resolution | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-whca-dinner-on-april-25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP