Will Donald Trump say “Peace”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Peace” at 21 of 48 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (44%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=48, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

35%from settlement history only · n=48counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Peace

Probability
35% · n=48
Settled
21/48 (44%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

audience questionerotherDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 1:26:10In transcript

…any other president ever. Ever. And they've never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace. So, what I came…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 59:07In transcript

…Thailand. Kosovo. I settled all these wars and they gave the wonderful peace prize, right? Does anybody know the name of that peace prize? The…

The PressreporterDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:15:34In transcript

…on Ukraine, sir, after today's talks in Oslo, do you believe the peace process is back on track? And what are your expectations when your…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 5:59In transcript

…while others have talked, I have acted, while others have spoken of peace. I have made peace while others have ignored threats. I have confronted…

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 50 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 24, 2026PeaceKalshiYes–
Aug 3, 2026PeacePolymarketNo0
Jul 8, 2026PeaceKalshiNo0
Jul 7, 2026PeacePolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2026PeacePolymarketNo0
Jun 18, 2026PeaceKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026PeaceKalshiYes2
Jun 17, 2026PeaceKalshiNo0
Jun 15, 2026PeacePolymarketNo0
May 27, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
May 8, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Apr 28, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Apr 28, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Apr 21, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Apr 21, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Apr 15, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Apr 13, 2026PeaceKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 12, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Apr 1, 2026PeacePolymarketNo–
Mar 31, 2026PeacePolymarketNo–
Feb 7, 2026PeacePolymarketNo–
Jan 17, 2026PeaceKalshiNo–
Dec 17, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Dec 7, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Dec 7, 2025PeaceKalshiNo–
Dec 5, 2025PeacePolymarketNo–
Dec 5, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Nov 20, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Nov 19, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Nov 12, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Nov 7, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Nov 2, 2025PeaceKalshiNo–
Oct 30, 2025PeaceKalshiNo–
Oct 10, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Oct 10, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Oct 9, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Sep 17, 2025PeacePolymarketNo–
Aug 19, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Aug 11, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Aug 8, 2025PeaceKalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2025PeaceKalshiNo–
Jul 3, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Jun 27, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2025PeaceKalshiNo–
Jun 21, 2025PeaceKalshiYes–
Jun 10, 2025PeacePolymarketYes–
Apr 16, 2025PeacePolymarketYes–
Apr 7, 2025PeaceKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2025PeacePolymarketYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Peace”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Peace” at 21 of 48 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 27, 2025 (44%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Peace” next time?
35%, from settlement history (n=48). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Peace’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/peace (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=peace · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP