Will Donald Trump say “Genius”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Genius” at 18 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 13, 2025 (75%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Genius
- Probability
- 61% · n=24
- Settled
- 18/24 (75%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…year I'm up 67%. And she thinks I'm the most brilliant financial genius ever. And I just want to thank you. I actually asked him…
…me, I suspect. But there's nothing wrong. Isn't that amazing? No, they're genius. They're genius. They have a situation today. I shouldn't talk about it,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 26 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Genius |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Genius |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Genius | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | 25 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | 25 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Genius | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | 18 |
| May 31, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Genius | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Genius | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Genius | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Genius | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 30, 2025 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 23, 2025 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Genius | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Genius”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Genius” at 18 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 13, 2025 (75%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Genius” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Genius’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/genius (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=genius · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP