Will Donald Trump say “Nobel / Peace Prize”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel / Peace Prize” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nobel / Peace Prize
- Probability
- 36% · n=8
- Settled
- 3/8 (38%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…settled I've settled eight wars. Think of that. Did I get the Nobel Prize? No. DID I GET THE NOBEL PRIZE? EXCUSE ME. BYRON, did…
…than any other president ever. Ever. And they've never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace. So, what I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Thailand. Kosovo. I settled all these wars and they gave the wonderful peace prize, right? Does anybody know the name of that peace prize? The…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Nobel / Peace Prize |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Nobel / Peace Prize | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Nobel / Peace Prize | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Nobel / Peace Prize | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Nobel / Peace Prize | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Nobel / Peace Prize | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Nobel / Peace Prize | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Nobel / Peace prize | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nobel / Peace Prize”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel / Peace Prize” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nobel / Peace Prize” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nobel / Peace Prize’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nobel-or-peace-prize (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nobel%20%2F%20peace%20prize · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP