Will Donald Trump say “Movie Star”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Movie Star” at 4 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 12, 2026 (31%), most recently on Jul 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Movie Star
- Probability
- 42% · n=13
- Settled
- 4/13 (31%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Oval Office. Three very handsome men, beautiful. I mean, like they're like movie stars. These guys were central casting. Big, beautiful looking guys. Four-star generals.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Movie Star |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Movie Star | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Movie Star | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Movie Star |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Movie Star | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 6, 2026 | Movie Star | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 6, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Movie star | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Movie Star | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Movie star | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Movie star | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Movie Star | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Movie Star”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Movie Star” at 4 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 12, 2026 (31%), most recently on Jul 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Movie Star” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Movie Star’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/movie-star (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=movie%20star · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP