Will Donald Trump say “Charlie / Kirk”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Charlie / Kirk” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Charlie / Kirk
- Probability
- 46% · n=14
- Settled
- 6/14 (43%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 1 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Charlie / Kirk”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Charlie / Kirk” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Charlie / Kirk” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Charlie / Kirk’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/charlie-or-kirk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=charlie%20%2F%20kirk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP