Will Donald Trump say “Karoline / Leavitt”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Karoline / Leavitt” at 9 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (29%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=31, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
41%from settlement history only · n=31counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Karoline / Leavitt
- Probability
- 41% · n=31
- Settled
- 9/31 (29%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 32 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 15 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 15 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 11, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 10, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Karoline / Leavitt | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Karoline/Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Karoline/Leavitt | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Karoline / Leavitt”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Karoline / Leavitt” at 9 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (29%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Karoline / Leavitt” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=31). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Karoline / Leavitt’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/karoline-or-leavitt (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=karoline%20%2F%20leavitt · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP