Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Texas, Oct 7, 2026
At the rally on Oct 7, 2026, Donald Trump said 30 of the 60 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
60 words · 30 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 74%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 70%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 67%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 65%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 60%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Venezuelan | Yes | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times | Yes | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 59%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 55%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 54%n=245 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 54%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 54%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Toyota | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 52%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 52%n=197 from settlement history | – |
| 1776 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 49%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Alamo | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fascism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vegan 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talarico / Talafreako | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Paxton | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 42%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 37%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 37%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 32%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 25%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 22%n=271 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 62%n=120 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 53%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 53%n=186 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 52%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 49%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 49%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Beat Meat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 48%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Shut Up | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 20+ times | No | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 45%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Refinery | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Institution | No | 43%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | No | 42%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 32%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election | No | 31%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 30%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 27%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla / Elon | No | 27%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 24%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 23%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 21%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 18%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 9%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 8%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=522 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-07:rally-texas · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-07:rally-texas · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP