Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in New York, Oct 9, 2026
At the rally on Oct 9, 2026, Donald Trump said 26 of the 50 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
50 words · 26 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 76%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 68%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 61%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| 1776 | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 59%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 58%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Electricity / Electric | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 56%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 56%n=246 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 56%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 54%n=198 from settlement history | – |
| Hochul | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 49%n=187 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Depression | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AOC | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 46%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 45%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 44%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Micron | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 42%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 42%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 40%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 35%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 67%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 64%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Buffalo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 49%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Union | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clay | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockade | No | 45%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 43%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 40%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 32%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 30%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 29%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 26%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 26%n=274 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 24%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 23%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 21%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 19%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 16%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 9%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 8%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=524 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the rally video's captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-09:rally-new-york · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-09:rally-new-york · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP